Rome – The benchmark index of world food commodity prices edged up in August, as high temperatures and other weather-related risks raised concerns over supply prospects, according to new data released Friday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, up 1.9 percent from its revised July level and 2.5 percent from a year ago.

“August’s increase in global food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets: climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations, showing that resilience, open trade and secure input flows are now central to global food-price stability,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 2.2 percent from July as international prices of all major grains rose on the back of robust import demand, growing concerns over crop prospects and continued uncertainty surrounding critical trade flows. Global wheat prices increased by 2.6 percent in August and were 15.0 percent above their year-earlier level, amid persistent disruptions to Black Sea export logistics, lower production prospects in much of Europe following hot and dry weather, and a weaker United States dollar. World maize prices increased by 2.5 percent from July, driven by mounting concerns over yield prospects in parts of the United States of America, deteriorating production prospects in the European Union, strong demand from the ethanol and feed sectors, disruptions to inputs because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and to Ukraine’s export flows. The FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 0.5 percent, underpinned by sustained purchases by Asian and African countries.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 1.1 percent from July, reflecting higher world palm and soy oil prices, spurred by robust global import demand and concerns over the impact of El Niño-related conditions on production prospects in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, quotations for rapeseed and sunflower oils dropped slightly amid expectations of ample supplies in the year ahead.

The FAO Meat Price Index rose by 1.0 percent in the month, with poultry, pig and ovine meat prices all higher. The increase in pig meat quotations was driven principally by high temperatures that slowed animal growth in the European Union. International bovine meat prices declined, however, as Chinese import quota allocations intensified competition among exporters in Brazil and Australia for alternative market destinations.

The FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 2.3 percent from July. Much of the increase was driven by tightening milk supplies in the European Union amid hot and dry weather.

The FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 11.9 percent in August. The surge reflected expectations of lower sugar beet yields in the European Union due to adverse weather, concerns over the impact of El Niño on production prospects in key producing countries in Asia, lower sugar production in Brazil, and India’s announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports.

More details are available here.

Global maize, wheat and rice output projected to fall from record levels

Global cereal production in 2026 is now forecast at 2 980 million tonnes, down 2.0 percent from 2025 but still the second-largest harvest on record, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released by FAO today.

The forecast for world maize output has been revised down to 1 309 million tonnes, as worsening crop prospects in France and Poland are anticipated to more than offset better-than-earlier-expected yields in Argentina and Brazil. By contrast, the forecast for global wheat production has been raised to 810.7 million tonnes, which would be 3.8 percent below the 2025 level though but still representing the second largest outturn on record. Global rice output is anticipated to decline to 553.1 million tonnes, down by 1.9 percent in 2026/27 from the all-time high reached in the previous season, due to reduced producer margins and weather conditions mostly associated with El Niño.

FAO’s updated forecast for world total cereal utilization in 2026/27 stands at 2 965 million tonnes, 0.2 percent higher than in the previous year, with utilization of coarse grains and rice expected to increase while that of wheat to decline.
World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast to reach 947.2 million tonnes, slightly above opening levels due in part to a build-up in wheat reserves in the Russian Federation and Ukraine linked to restricted export routes. The resulting world cereal stocks-to-use at the end of seasons in 2026/27 is forecast at 31.6 percent, down from 31.9 percent in the previous season, but still indicating a relatively comfortable global supply situation from a historical perspective. FAO also forecasts that world trade in cereals will likely decline from record levels in 2026/27 to 509.3 million tonnes.

More details are available here.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday, noting that futures markets were “generally bullish” for key crops. The report includes a feature article examining risks, policy development and climate uncertainty for the palm oil sector